Columbus, Ohio: If the youth vote this year is as important as most think it is, the news that Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama has a significant lead in youth support in the swing states of Ohio, Colorado, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, as shown in a new CBS News/UWIRE/Chronicle of Higher Education poll of college students, is very good news. In a news release from the media communications department of The Ohio State University, the self-administered online poll ran from October 6 - 19 at 50 colleges across the four battleground states.

The news of the poll said that of the nearly 25,000 students polled, more than 60 percent in each state preferred the Obama-Biden ticket, and that likely voters at Ohio State's Columbus campus favored the Democratic ticket, with 63 percent supporting Obama-Biden and 33 percent backing the Republican ticket. At OSU's main campus in Columbus, the state's capital, more McCain supporters had reservations about their support for the candidate, while more than half of Obama supporters said they enthusiastically supported him, while 29 percent of McCain supports said the same about their candidate. These differences were even larger across all of Ohio and the other three states, according to the poll.

“This data indicates that Obama's support among students is more solid, less likely to change before the election and higher enthusiasm also means Obama supporters are more likely to turn out and vote than McCain supporters,” said Erik Nisbet, an assistant professor of communication and liaison for the study. Obama scored better in perceived ability to bring about real change, improve the respondent's life and improve America's image in the world. Students are also more likely to say they relate to Obama and believe he cares about people like them. McCain scored higher on perceived ability to be an effective commander-in-chief. A majority of registered student voters said Obama is different than other Democrats, while most agreed that McCain is a typical Republican.

The poll shows that students in the four states are paying almost as much attention to the election as adult voters, and that roughly half of the students polled said they are paying a lot of attention to the election, compared to 65 percent of adults. More than 90 percent of students, as shown by the poll, said they were registered to vote, with more than 80 percent saying they will definitely vote in the election. Ohio had the lowest percentage of students, 82, to report they were definitely going to vote. Colorado had the most with 91 percent.

McCain Number Less Important Than Obama Number, Election Expert Says

Speaking on C-Span's forum series "2008 Election Cycle and Beyond," Joe Trippi, former Howard Dean campaign manager in 2004 and author of "The Revolution Will Not Be Televised," and Simon Rosenburg, founder and president of NDN, said they expect the race between Obama and McCain to tighten in the final week. But while McCain's numbers, as shown in the gaggle of polls that come out each day, may rise two or three or more points, the real number to watch is the top number for Obama.

Trippi, who revealed he was involved in the management of the campaign of then-Mayor of Los Angeles Tom Bradley -- whose loss for governor of California in 1982 after polls showed him up by 10 points before the election  resulted in coining the phrase "The Bradley Effect" that is about the potential for race to play a negative with prejudiced white voters, and Rosenburg said that news media erroneously focus on McCain narrowing the margin. If Obama's numbers don't fall, the duo said, McCain will loose.

Trippi attributed McCain's harsh and volitile rhetoric in the week before the election as campaigning designed to boost support from his conservative Republican base, in an effort to minimize McCain's loss on Election Day. In many respected polls, Obama's support is now 50 percent or higher, while McCain's is in the low to mid 40s. As long as Obama's numbers stay where they are, and they've actually been trending upwards, McCain's closing numbers represent the fact that more of his base has decided to turn out for him rather than sit it out rather than independents and moderates breaking his way.

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