Zogby Poll Reflects Similar Gap Between Presidential Rivals

Columbus, Ohio: Two poll results Friday show Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama with a solid 10-point or more lead over Sen John McCain, his Republican rival, as the days and hours tick down to E-Day on November 4th, when the largest number of voters ever are expected to come out to vote for who they want living in the White House and leading us out of the economic slough of despond the nation finds itself in.

The new Big Ten Battleground Poll, conducted by universities in the Big Ten Conference (which actually numbers 11 with the addition of Penn State in 1990) shows Mr. Obama has opened up a wide lead (12%) over Mr. McCain in Ohio and similar spreads in seven other states. Before the candidates debated back in September, the differences between the two candidates were, essentially, a statistical dead heat. At The Ohio State University OSU), where the project was led by Paul Beck, professor of political science, along with professors Herb Asher and Herb Weisberg and conducted from Oct. 19-22 among a total of 564 Ohioans interviewed by telephone, 49 percent said they would vote for Obama and Biden if the election were held that day, or already had voted that way in early voting; with 38 percent saying they would vote for McCain and Palin (or already had). If undecided voters are added to these totals based on how they were leaning at the time, the margin widens to 53 to 41 in favor of Obama-Biden, according to information distributed by media at OSU.

Showing what other surveys of voters show, Beck said the economy plays a dominant role. "The economy is dominating voters’ views of what is the most serious national issue, with 62% citing it vs. 12% who mentioned terrorism and national security. On economic issues, 45% of Ohioans viewed Obama, compared to 22% McCain, as more likely to make the right decisions,” Beck said. He also says that voter evaluations of Palin have changed the most dramatically of the four candidates -- Obama, McCain, Sen. Joe Biden and Gov. Palin of Alaska. Beck said she is the only one "now viewed more unfavorably than favorably, with 44% favorable compared to 47% unfavorable." Just a month before, he said, her evaluations were 50% favorable to 36% unfavorable. 

Among independents (and moderates), the group everyone believes will determine who the winner will be, the OSU study said Democrats are now out-polling Republicans 50-38 percent, a dramatic shift from a month ago when it was reversed 46-36 percent. Even in the hostile territory of white voters, the Obama-Biden ticket is now one percentage point ahead in the Ohio sample.

The eight Big Ten states cited in the poll emerged as the prime battleground for the 2008 presidential campaign. George W. Bush had won 3 of these states in 2004, and 6 of the races were decided by no more than 4 percent margins. In the report Beck says Mr. McCain needs to hold at least the Bush states to win the 2008 contest. “Ohio and Indiana are the most recent states to move into the Obama column, Beck said, adding that these are "the states McCain can hardly afford to lose in his quest for the presidency.”

In the Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll released Friday, 10 points -- 51.3% to 41% -- is the "hefty" lead, as Mr. Zogby put it, Mr. Obama has over Mr. McCain. He said the numbers represent a "solid and growing lead in the Democratic base while it also shows that 25 percent of Hispanics are also breaking for Barack. "McCain must make gains, and soon, if he's going to pull this election out," John Zogbysaid on Washington Journal, a show on C-Span, the public network that follows government in Washington. Zogby said McCain must reel in red states who went for Bush in 2004 but who may flip to Obama this year, if he hopes to close the gap and win the election. In the race for gender, Zogbysaid the disparity between the two is now huge, with 58 percent of women to 38 percent now supporting Mr. Obama. And among new voters, the distance is even greater for Obama -- 69 to 26 percent.

Zogby said McCain has definitely lost his edge on the economy, and said that the financial crisis confused and confounded the Republican's message.

John Michael Spinelli is a former Ohio Statehouse government and political reporter and business columnist. He now serves as the OhioNews Bureau Chief for ePluribus Media Journal. Find ONB archives here.
Photo credits: (c) 2008 AnHarris, istockphoto

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