Statistical Dead Heat in Ohio Recalls Era of "Three yards and a cloud of dust"

Columbus, Ohio: With less than a month until Election Day, the ground game for president between Illinois Democrat Barack Obama and Arizona Republican Sen. John Sydney McCain III in Ohio is, a virtual dead heat, and  is reminiscent of the style of football played by Ohio's most heralded coach, Wayne W. "Woody" Hayes.  That style came to be known as "Three yards and a cloud of dust" for his brutal running game that wore down most opponents by marching up the field in small increments.

A similar battle strategy is being waged in the battleground of Ohio. Which ever campaign has the resources and stamina to wear down their opponent each remaining day stands a good chance to capture the state, its 20 Electoral College votes, and the four years in the White House that comes with it. President Bush won Ohio in 2000 and squeaked by in 2004 by the slim margin of 118,601 votes. Bill Clinton took it twice, in 1992 and 1996.

With much anticipation riding on Tuesday night's next presidential debate in Nashville, Tenn., and who may win or lose from it with just a few weeks until America votes in what many election watchers say will be a record turnout, the battle for Ohio is now a matter of mobilizing bases, new registered voters and the shrinking number of independents who have yet to make a firm commitment to either candidate. The stakes for tonight's debate are even higher, as the percentage of Americans of Americans who say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States, 9%, hits the lowest such reading in Gallup Poll history.

In today's Daily President Tracking poll, put out by Fox News/Rasmussen Reports and based on a telephone survey of 1,000 likely voters in the state, for the second week in a row, John McCain leads Barack Obama in Ohio by a single point, 48% to 47%. The poll showed Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and independent candidate Ralph Nader each earn one percent (1%) of the vote. Over the last two weeks, McCain lost four points to Obama. The survey said seventy-eight percent (78%) of Ohio voters say they are certain of the candidate they are voting for but showed 22% may change their minds. This figure includes 29% of Catholic voters and 26% of those ages 18-39. But on the same day, another poll by CNN/Time, puts Obama at 50 percent, three points above McCain at 47 percent.

But even though McCain is ahead by a freckle with Buckeyes, still not having reached 50 percent, Obama is widening his lead nationally with a now statistically significant lead over McCain of51 percent to 42 percent, according to Gallup polling. Ohioans also have greater comfort in Connecticut Sen. Joe Biden, Obama's Veep pick, than Alaskan Gov. Sarah Palin, McCain's pick, Rasmussen said.

As the financial tsunami that gathered strength at sea for months finally crashed on Wall Street last week, forcing Congress to approve a national rescue package of $700 billion for troubled lenders that may help Main Street from being washed away as those troubled waters wash through Ohio's and the nation's communities, the solid lead the economy has over other issues, like national security, is evident. Fifty-two percent of Ohio voters now say the economy is the most important issue to them. Fox News/Ramussen say only 17 percent say national security, including the issues of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, is more important. With the first debate between the two, which focused on foreign policy, now over, domestic issues like the economy, jobs and health care are what Ohio families are talking about around the dinner table.

With Obama's release today of a mini-documentary that dredges up McCain's participation in the savings and loan fraud, known as the Keating Five, that occured in the early 1980s when he was a young Congressional lawmaker, the ground game launched by the group called Working America, the AFL-CIO’s grassroots organization for workers without a union on the job, that will highlight McCain's performance then and argue he shouldn't become president now because of his blind obedience to deregulation, will mobilize 2.5 million members between now and Election Day, mostly in battleground states like Ohio, in support of working family candidates.

The target audience for Working America are those voters who have been the most difficult to capture for Obama, independent and moderate blue-collar voters who helped Sen. Hillary Clinton beat Obama in Ohio by more than 10 points. According to an email to OhioNewsBureau, the group will send a new mailer to 1 million households in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and other battleground states. The mailer highlights John McCain’s disastrous economic proposals and his support of deregulating the financial sector, which led to the Wall Street meltdown and $700 billion taxpayer bailout. The mailer reads: “Republican John McCain: An Economic Disaster for the Middle Class,” the mailer reads.

So-called Reagan Democrats, the blue-collar workers Obama and sympathetic groups like Working America want to capture this election cycle, may be more apt to vote Blue this year as they see their jobs and paychecks disappearing before their eyes. With the report Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics that the nation had lost another 159,000 jobs, the nineth consecutive month of jobs losses, Ohio workers may be more concerned about their income than about social issues that in years past became a focus of their attention. In key battleground states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where traditional manufacturing jobs have been lost, leaving a sour economy behind, the profile of these voters should auger to Obama.

The voters the ground game in Ohio hopes to convince that Republican policies have done them no good are defined by Working America as follows:
84% make less than $60,000; 78% are white; 63% don’t have a college degree; 62% do not have a strong party affiliation; 61% are 40 years or older; 41% attend church at least weekly; 32% own guns.

In a prepared statement, Karen Nussbaum of WA said, “Make no mistake, this election hinges on economic concerns.” Her appeal, she added, is to "their economic interests rather than their fears. "Every day, we’re making sure our members in key battleground states know exactly what the stakes are in this election.” Presidential ground games are won street by street and house by house. With a growing army of community organizers, the all-important ground game in Ohio will benefit from the group's approximately 2.5 million members, the AFL-CIO’s largest grassroots mobilization in history. With 13 million voters in 24 priority states supporting candidates like Obama, who stand with working families, the effort is also focused on down-ticket races. Eleven Senate races and more than 60 House races are in play, the group's release said. In total, the AFL-CIO is engaged in 510 races nationwide, including state legislative elections. Ohio Democrats hope to retake the Ohio House, which they lack, by winning four seats.

John Michael Spinelli is a former Ohio Statehouse government and political reporter and business columnist. He now serves as the OhioNews Bureau Chief for ePluribus Media Journal. Find ONB archives here.
Photo credits: (c) 2008 AnHarris, istockphoto

To send a tip or story idea to this correspondent, send an email to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it