Ohio Job, Population Losses Basis for Wrong Record Streak for Job Growth, Economic Analyst Says

OhioNewsBureau

COLUMBUS, OHIO: With one in every six jobs in Ohio tied to the auto industry one way or another, the announcement Monday by General Motors (GM) that it would eliminate 1,000 jobs soon and an equal number in 2010 when it closes a Dayton-area plant making parts for its line of trucks and SUVs, continuing the 12-year-long, unbroken record streak when Ohio’s job growth was slower than the USA national average.

Sputtering in Ohio

With its economy sputtering, Ohio officials are working frantically to adhere to the three keys of economic development: keep the jobs you have, help existing businesses to expand and then hope you’ve got enough shine on your shoes to close the deal to attract new employers to your borders. But with GM’s announcement that Ohio’s unemployment insurance fund will need to brace for more mouths to feed with little stored in the cupboard to keep them properly fed until their next job meal comes by, pressure mounts on state officials, now Democrats who are more apt to hang their misfortunes on policies from Washington than from Columbus, to create good jobs, the kind you can raise a family on and bankroll a retirement plan on. Easy to plan for, very hard to accomplish.

Economic Indicators Reveal Wrong Record on Jobs

But according to national and state job growth figures dating back to 1996 and analyzed by one expert who has made a reputation of pragmatic prognostications for himself by crawling through the labyrinth of labor statistic data and producing cogent explanations for why they are and what the tea leaves of numbers mean, for the first time ever Ohio has more than a dozen consecutive years – 148 months to be exact – of uninterrupted sub-par job growth.

George Zeller, an economic research analyst, who tracked Ohio employment data from 1939 to the present day, said not since the first quarter of 1996 has Ohio’s job growth outpaced that of the national average. This record setting time period encompasses years when Ohio was under the direction and control of the GOP, from the governor’s mansion to both house of the legislature and everything in between.

“June 2008 was the 148th consecutive month when Ohio’s job growth was below the national average. This is by far the longest streak of sub-par Ohio job growth in the history of job statistics in Ohio and in the United States. This has never happened before in Ohio’s history. ” [George Zeller, Economic Research Analyst, July 2008 Economic Indicators]

Yesterday's visit by the ghost of the recession of the future bore no good news for Gov. Ted Strickland, the first Democratic in that position since Dick Celeste left in 1992. Strickland ran to victory in 2006 vowing to turn around Ohio from policies that left him a state whose population growth, according to Zeller, is a co-conspirator with poor job growth in leading to this ignominious record for slow growth. Losing thousands of jobs this year from GM, Ford, DHL and others are reasons why Ohio, along with Michigan and Rhode Island, has fewer jobs today than at the end of the last recession of 2001.

The Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission (MORPC) confirms Zeller's thesis on Ohio's lackluster economic performance over the past dozen years, stating that projected population growth for Ohio is flat and will slip below that of Georgia and North Carolina by 2030. Information contained in a presentation made to Columbus City Council about transportation in Central Ohio and the external and internal forces that affect it, MORPC stated that Ohio and Great Lakes Regions grew 8 percent over past 30 years compared to 28 percent national growth. Focused on attracting more people to Central Ohio, MORPC said Ohio and Great Lakes Region is losing its national presence as a Mega-Region, locations with 15 or more million in people like Paris, Cairo, Mexico City or Tokyo among others.

The cut in GM jobs is the latest in a series of economic body blows the state has had to take, with a limited number of counter punches to delivery that don't take years to pan out, for better or worse. And if Zeller’s tabulations are correct, and there's been scant evidence to challenge his analysis, Ohio will continue its streak of sub-par job growth, leaving decision makers, public and private, to tweak, twist or contort state options until something works that beats the national job growth average, breaking this steady but sad spell. Ohio's current unemployment rate (6.6%) is a full point higher than the national rate.

Scary headlines like this no doubt send shivers down the backbones of Strickland and legislative leaders. Earlier this year they teamed to produce a $1.57 billion plan to create 57,000 new jobs in the next five years. But the way things are going, with job cuts accumulating from GM, Ford, DHL and others, by the time Ohio voters approve the last segment ($400 million) of the jobs package in November, the number of jobs needed to get back to where the state was before these job hits landed may be twice as many as state leaders expect to create from the layout of state funds.

Ohio in GOP Policy Hangover

Strickland inherited a state still reeling from various GOP-related scandals that took place on the watch of former Governor Bob Taft, who served two terms as chief executive. The GOP controlled the gears of government for nearly 16 years, starting in 1992 when Republican Governor George V. Voinovich came to power, and forward from 1994 when the GOP took firm control of the General Assembly until 2006, when Democrats surged to win all statewide offices but Auditor.

Republicans have been beating up on Strickland for not returning the state to prosperity in his first year and one-half on the job. But they and the mainstream media fail to note what Zeller has noted, namely, the GOP, always stressing low taxes, less regulation and doing all they could to cater to the interests of big business, whose tax burden has plummeted over the decades, shifted the tax burden to Ohioans who are decidedly less flush with cash than before.

As Zeller said in his July 2008 analysis of economic indicators, the contradictory numbers that show both employment and unemployment rising, “It will be necessary to examine data for future 2008 months before it can be conclusively determined if Ohio has finally hit a trough low point from the 2000s recession, or whether the Ohio labor market is weakening further into recession during 2008.”

John Michael Spinelli is a former Ohio Statehouse government and political reporter and business columnist. He now serves as the OhioNews Bureau Chief for ePluribus Media Journal. Find ONB archives here.
Photo credit: (c) 2008 An Harris, istockphoto

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